Fred Martinez's Monitor

Coming Economic Collapse?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Schiff


"In his January 14, 2009 radio show, [Peter]Schiff discussed moving out of cities in anticipation of rising crime rates, food shortages, fuel shortages, and rolling blackouts. He also mentioned the need for families to stock up on guns and ammunition as a part of what he expects. This quasi-survivalist stance demonstrates how serious he expects the unfolding economic downturn will be.[15]


[edit] Writings
Schiff is the author of two books:

Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse, 2007, ISBN 978-0470043608
The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Market, 2008, ISBN 978-0470383780

[edit] Criticism

[edit] Predictions
This article may contain original research or unverified claims. Please improve the article by adding references. See the talk page for details. (February 2009)

Not all of Schiff's predictions made in Crash Proof or in publicly available transcripts and statements before July 2007 have held out to be true as of January 2009.

Schiff's prediction that the US Dollar would collapse along with the housing bubble has so far not come to pass, with the US Dollar Index rising from 80 points in July 2007 to 83 points in January 2009, a climb which actually accelerated as the US financial crisis became more acute in September 2008.

Similarly, Schiff's prediction that the US financial crisis would cause a greater fall in US equity prices than in non-US equity prices has so far been inaccurate as in 2007-2008 most international equity markets fell further than the US markets. Using the broadest available measures, the MSCI US Broad Market Index was down 34.83% in 2008, while the MSCI All Country Ex-US Index was down 42.86%. [16].

Gold and precious metals during this period have performed significantly better than equity prices, with gold losing only 3.77% and silver 5.38% of their USD values in 2008. Yet with gold under $1,000 per oz, and silver under $20 per oz, precious metal prices have not seen the dramatic run up Schiff has been predicting.

Schiff acknowledges the short-term failure of these particular predictions, but says that the US financial crisis is just beginning to unfold and it is merely a matter of time before the global economy rebalances and his further predictions take form.

On October 28 2008, Schiff stated in an interview on Bloomberg TV[citation needed] that the investment strategies outlined in both books currently "are not working" due to the collapse of foreign currencies, foreign stocks and the failure of gold prices to go up significantly as most of the world entered an economic recession and foreign investors flee to cash. However, he maintained that this was a very temporary phenomenon, "due to deleveraging", and that he expects gold to shoot up to $2,000 per ounce as the dollar soon "drops like a stone." Overall, Schiff remained optimistic on his theories and stated this was a good opportunity to buy foreign stocks trading at yearly lows.

In January 2009 financial blogger Mike Shedlock claimed that Peter Schiff's investment strategies have resulted in some of his Euro Pacific Capital account holders losing 60% to 70% of their value in 2008[17]. Peter Schiff responded to this claim by stating, "to examine the effectiveness of my investment strategy immediately following a major correction by looking only at those accounts who adopted the strategy at the previous peak is unfair and distortive" and claims that losses were most heavily felt by recent clients and not by his long time investors[18].

In an interview on Yahoo Tech Ticker on February 6th, Schiff conceded that the value of his investors' portfolios had dropped as much as 50%, while avoiding the interviewer's question about how much the value of his own accounts had fallen. These returns stood in sharp contrast to the 2008 returns of other investors who shared his views including George Soros (up 10% in 2008) and Nassim Nicholas Taleb (up between 55% and 110% in 2008)."



Born Peter David Schiff

Residence Darien, Connecticut
Occupation Stock broker, investment adviser, author, economist.
Employer Euro Pacific Capital
Website
www.europac.net
Peter Schiff (born 1964)[1] is an American economic commentator, author and licensed stock broker who currently serves as president of Euro Pacific Capital Inc., a fully accredited brokerage firm based in Darien, Connecticut.[2]

Schiff is best known for his bearish views on the United States economy and he claims to have predicted the economic crisis of 2008.[3] He has risen to media prominence following the publication of his book Crash Proof: How to Profit From the Coming Economic Collapse.

Aside from his writings, Schiff maintains a significant media presence, often appearing on US financial news programs on networks such as CNBC, CNN, CNN International, Fox News, Bloomberg TV and Fox Business where he is generally booked to provide a bearish counterpoint to more bullish commentators.

Schiff also hosts a live Internet/shortwave radio show called "Wall Street Unspun, which is available in podcast format."[4]

Schiff is a supporter of the Austrian School of Economics and the Ludwig von Mises Institute[5], and was an economic adviser for Ron Paul's campaign in the 2008 Republican Party primaries, through which Schiff also expressed support for sound money, limited government, and free market capitalism.

Contents [hide]
1 Personal life
2 Career
3 Economic views
4 Writings
5 Criticism
5.1 Predictions
6 Political activity
7 Footnotes
8 External links



[edit] Personal life
Peter Schiff was born in New Haven, Connecticut and was raised in Manhattan and Miami. He graduated from the University of California, Berkeley in 1987 with a degree in finance and accounting.[6] During a discussion in his radio show 'Wall Street Unspun' on January 14, 2009 Peter commented that he had a six year old son and was divorced from his wife.[7]

His father is the well-known tax protester Irwin Schiff.


[edit] Career
Schiff began his career in financial consulting with Shearson Lehman Brothers.[8] He launched Euro Pacific Capital in 1996 when he bought a broker-dealer in Florida without clients or revenues and then reincorporated the business in California. In 2005, Schiff relocated to Darien, Connecticut in order to find brokers "who think like him" according to an article in The Advocate of Stamford, Connecticut. The New York Metropolitan Area, he said, has the biggest concentration of brokers in the country, making it easier to recruit them.[4]

The company retains an office in Newport Beach, California as well as in Phoenix and Medford, Oregon. Schiff said in August 2006 that he planned to open offices eventually in Manhattan and somewhere in the Midwest.[4]

Euro Pacific Capital typically recommends an investment strategy which accords with Schiff's pessimistic view of the US economy, focusing heavily on non-US stocks and precious metals.

Euro Pacific Capital holds the exclusive rights to broker certain Perth Mint products in the United States.


[edit] Economic views
In an August 2006 interview Schiff generated much controversy when he repeated his long-held investment thesis: "The United States economy is like the Titanic and I am here with the lifeboat trying to get people to leave the ship ...I see a real financial crisis coming for the United States." On May 16, 2006 in debate on Fox News, Schiff accurately forecast that the U.S. housing market was a bubble that would soon burst.[9] On December 13, 2007 in a Bloomberg interview on the show Open Exchange, Schiff further added that he felt that the crisis would extend to the credit card lending industry.[10] Following this observation, it was soon reported on December 23, 2007 by the Associated Press that "The value of credit card accounts at least 30 days late jumped 26 percent to $17.3 billion in October from a year earlier at 17 large credit card trusts examined by the AP... At the same time, defaults -- when lenders essentially give up hope of ever being repaid and write off the debt -- rose 18 percent to almost $961 million in October, according to filings made by the trusts with the Securities and Exchange Commission."[11]

Schiff also discusses the role of the US consumer in the world, saying that the US consumer thinks he's doing the world a favor by consuming what the rest of the world produces. He is quick to point out that this relationship will come to an end, in his view, much sooner than people imagine, and with negative consequences for the US. Schiff has been quoted as saying: "Consumption is its own reward for Production"—meaning that without production, the US cannot indefinitely sustain its ongoing consumption. Schiff, and other adherents of Austrian economics, promote savings and production as "the engine of economic growth -- not consumption".[citation needed]

Schiff has said on numerous occasions that the current economic crisis is not the problem; it is the solution. According to him, the transition from borrowing and spending to saving and producing cannot be accomplished without a severe recession, given the current imbalances of the US economy. But according to him, that transition needs to happen. He also thinks the government is doing no one a favor by trying to "ease the pain" with stimulus packages, bailouts and such. Schiff believes these actions will only make the situation worse and possibly result in hyperinflation if the government continues to "replace legitimate savings with a printing press."[12]

Schiff is a firm believer in reducing government regulation of the economy. Schiff worries that Barack Obama will increase such regulation.[13]

Schiff points to the low savings rate of the United States as its worst malady, citing the transformation from being the world's largest creditor nation in the 1970s to the largest debtor nation by the year 2000. His extremely bearish views on the U.S. Dollar, the United States stock market, bond market and the United States economy have earned him the nickname "Dr. Doom." [14]

In his January 14, 2009 radio show, Schiff discussed moving out of cities in anticipation of rising crime rates, food shortages, fuel shortages, and rolling blackouts. He also mentioned the need for families to stock up on guns and ammunition as a part of what he expects. This quasi-survivalist stance demonstrates how serious he expects the unfolding economic downturn will be.[15]


[edit] Writings
Schiff is the author of two books:

Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse, 2007, ISBN 978-0470043608
The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Market, 2008, ISBN 978-0470383780

[edit] Criticism

[edit] Predictions
This article may contain original research or unverified claims. Please improve the article by adding references. See the talk page for details. (February 2009)

Not all of Schiff's predictions made in Crash Proof or in publicly available transcripts and statements before July 2007 have held out to be true as of January 2009.

Schiff's prediction that the US Dollar would collapse along with the housing bubble has so far not come to pass, with the US Dollar Index rising from 80 points in July 2007 to 83 points in January 2009, a climb which actually accelerated as the US financial crisis became more acute in September 2008.

Similarly, Schiff's prediction that the US financial crisis would cause a greater fall in US equity prices than in non-US equity prices has so far been inaccurate as in 2007-2008 most international equity markets fell further than the US markets. Using the broadest available measures, the MSCI US Broad Market Index was down 34.83% in 2008, while the MSCI All Country Ex-US Index was down 42.86%. [16].

Gold and precious metals during this period have performed significantly better than equity prices, with gold losing only 3.77% and silver 5.38% of their USD values in 2008. Yet with gold under $1,000 per oz, and silver under $20 per oz, precious metal prices have not seen the dramatic run up Schiff has been predicting.

Schiff acknowledges the short-term failure of these particular predictions, but says that the US financial crisis is just beginning to unfold and it is merely a matter of time before the global economy rebalances and his further predictions take form.

On October 28 2008, Schiff stated in an interview on Bloomberg TV[citation needed] that the investment strategies outlined in both books currently "are not working" due to the collapse of foreign currencies, foreign stocks and the failure of gold prices to go up significantly as most of the world entered an economic recession and foreign investors flee to cash. However, he maintained that this was a very temporary phenomenon, "due to deleveraging", and that he expects gold to shoot up to $2,000 per ounce as the dollar soon "drops like a stone." Overall, Schiff remained optimistic on his theories and stated this was a good opportunity to buy foreign stocks trading at yearly lows.

In January 2009 financial blogger Mike Shedlock claimed that Peter Schiff's investment strategies have resulted in some of his Euro Pacific Capital account holders losing 60% to 70% of their value in 2008[17]. Peter Schiff responded to this claim by stating, "to examine the effectiveness of my investment strategy immediately following a major correction by looking only at those accounts who adopted the strategy at the previous peak is unfair and distortive" and claims that losses were most heavily felt by recent clients and not by his long time investors[18].

In an interview on Yahoo Tech Ticker on February 6th, Schiff conceded that the value of his investors' portfolios had dropped as much as 50%, while avoiding the interviewer's question about how much the value of his own accounts had fallen. These returns stood in sharp contrast to the 2008 returns of other investors who shared his views including George Soros (up 10% in 2008) and Nassim Nicholas Taleb (up between 55% and 110% in 2008).

On February 13th, 2009, nationally syndicated newspaper columnist Eric Tyson analyzed Schiff's recommendations from a U.S. News & World Report magazine interview from May, 2008 as well as other Schiff recommendations[19]. The piece, which also include an interview of Schiff, also assessed how Schiff came to hold his economic views.


[edit] Political activity
Schiff was an economic adviser to Ron Paul's 2008 presidential campaign. Schiff made the following statement concerning Paul's economic revitalization plan.
"We need a plan that stimulates savings and production not more of the reckless borrowing and consumption that got us into this mess in the first place. Ron Paul's plan is the only one that amounts to a step in the right direction. If you want meaningful change - for the better that is - Ron Paul is the only candidate capable of delivering it."[20]

Schiff also endorsed Murray Sabrin for the US Senate seat in New Jersey.[21]

In December 2008, some fans of Schiff put up a website to encourage Schiff to challenge incumbent Connecticut Senator Christopher Dodd.[22] On January 23, 2009, yet another group of Schiff fans registered a domain, starting a new site with a new logo, to inspire Schiff for a possible run against Dodd. [23]

http://www.unitypublishing.com/Government/SavingAmerica.htm


How to Save America

Richard Salbato

Today I read that 61% of Americans believe that America’s government will fail. That means that we will come to a point that the government will not be able to pay its bills and will not be able to borrow money. At that point all government employees, even the Military will not be paid. This almost happened in California this month and might still happen in the next two years. Twelve countries are on the brink of this right now, but no one ever thought this might happen to America.

However, I have done the math and if all the spending plans that have passed in the past 30 days and will pass in the next 30 days are not abolished in the next two years, we will not be able to pay the Federal Government bills.

The Stock Market has dropped by six trillion dollars in this last 30 days, because these people have lost faith in the future and these people look years out ahead to invest.

This is an abomination. Oh! I mean Obama-nation.

Almost everyday Obama talks to the nation, and he always says the right thing. No one can disagree with what he says, but his actions are always the opposite of what he says.

He said that we must create four million dollars and this is how he sold an almost trillion dollar “stimulus” package, but where are these jobs. Small business accounts for 70% of all jobs and 92% of all new jobs, but not one cent of this plan goes towards small business. In fact it will not create more than 400,000 temporary jobs that will pay an average $40.000 per year at a cost of $540,000 per job.

The health care proposal will cost three quarters of a trillion dollars and the budget for just the next 7 months will cost half trillion dollars. Next years budget is expected to be two and a half trillion dollars. Not to count the 3 trillion into banks, AIG and GM.

Add to that the trillion debt that President Bush left and we have a budget deficit that cannot be paid back, not now, not ever. (Fox News said this will go to $17 Trillion Dollar debt) Divide that into the two hundred million households and see what you get per family.

Obama-nation’s idea is to tax the top 2% a great deal, the top 4% more, and all people through higher gas prices, higher utility bills and higher food bills. However, these taxes will bring in less tax revenue, not more.

Add to the above debt, the fact that the baby boomers are about to retire in the next two years and instead of paying taxes will be taking money from the government in SSI. This is about 20% of the working public.

OK! You get my point, unless we impeach this President and kick out everyone in congress so that we can reverse these programs, this country will cease to exist in just a few years. You and I know that will not happen because of all the new Pauls.

One thing that has always been known by Socialists is rob Peter to pay Paul, and when there are more Pauls than Peters, you have guaranteed that you will always be re-elected.

Not counting the really disabled, who are these Pauls? I don’t know for sure, but I can guess. The military says that only 20% of Americans can qualify for the military because 80% have a criminal record, have not graduated from High School, or cannot pass a basic knowledge test.

These people have not even tried to take care of their future but only want without working for it. These are the Pauls that those who worked hard in school and hard at jobs will have to pay for under Obama-nation. These are the young people who would rather have a few beers everyday than pay for Health Insurance. They are happy that the government will now become their mommy.

If all the above is true,

What Can You Do?

Assuming that this could happen, you should prepare the same way that people in California prepare for earthquakes; people in the Mid-West prepare for hurricanes; people in the South-Coast prepare for floods, and people in the North prepare for major snow falls. These people assume that they might loose electric power, gas, and even their food supply. Most store up at least one month in emergency supplies.

However, in a complete collapse of the government, is a month supply enough? I would guess, two years at least. Not only that but you should get all your family and extended family to work together and have a plan. Maybe get even your entire neighborhood to work together or at least your friends. I would prefer that Parishes had a plan, but I don’t expect that because they simply will not believe this possibility and half these priests and Catholics voted for this Obama-nation.

Don’t forget all the non-food items that you will not be able to do without. If you can, convert most of your yard to vegetable gardens, hot houses and fruit trees. Don’t forget a method to protect yourself from gangs of people who have not prepared for this possibility.

Will America Survive?

Yes! But we may have to use the Second Amendment to save it. That is what the Second Amendment is all about. We do have some free press, and maybe there will be enough outcries from the public in time to cause Public Officials to step down and admit they failed. If not, we will have to throw them out and clean up this mess. The military will always stand with the people and not the government because they are commanded to read the constitution at least once a year.

In the end the only way to get out of this mess is to reduce the size of State and Federal Governments by at least 60% to 75%. This can be done by the Feds giving up programs to the States, and States giving up programs to the Cities, and Cities giving up programs to the Charities.

Will Our Lady of America Help America

If it was not for all the people who harmed the devotion to Our Lady of America over the past 10 years, we would not have voted for the most satanic government in history. You can read about these demons, what they have done to harm the devotion and what they continue to do on the web site: - http://ourladyofamerica.blogspot.com/ .

Although I am not directly involved with anyone at the true center of this devotion, I know that in the end only a few things have to be accomplished for Our Lady to do what She promised: - to convert America and then use it to lead the rest of the world into a period of peace.

One of these things that still needs to be done I tried to do myself, without even letting Sister Joseph Therese know I was working on it. Just like everyone else over the past 40 years, I failed.

Now, it is not too late, but it is too late to save America from at least part of the Chastisement coming to the world.

I now believe that Our Lady will not come to our aid until we have gone at least two years through this Chastisement.

In the end something She said to Sister Neuzil will come to pass, the people will rise up and demand of the bishops to do what She asked of us.

The most important thing to do is to: 1 Make a statue of Our Lady of America as seen and instructed by Sister Neuzil. 2. Then have a life size version of this made in Marble and made by an American artist. 3. Then have this statue placed in the National Shrine of Immaculate Conception in Washington, DC by the bishops.

At that point, Our Lady will come to our aid and save America, so that it can lead the world to a period of peace.

Thanks to all the demonic attacks up to now, this will not happen until we are on the brink of national failure. At that point people will wake up and go into action demanding this statue be made and demanding that the bishops of America march it into the National Shrine.

During the period of peace to follow the Chastisement, America will shine forth as the leader of the world in freedom and in the purity of its people. It will take this Chastisement to change us into people who have humble and pure hearts, but it will happen through suffering and the prayers of Our Lady.

If you can help Sister Joseph Therese in the production of this statue, which will take a long time, send a small donation to her at:

Our Lady of America Center

P.O.Box 445

Fostorina, Ohio 44830

For the statue of Our Lady of America

If you cannot send any money, do all the devotions to Our Lady that you can do for the next few years we have left. One of my best friends is doing retreats all over his state on the True Devotion by Louis DeMontfort and I cannot think of anything better than that. See my web site: www.unitypublishing.com and go to the section

http://www.unitypublishing.com/Secret-of-Mary.htm

to learn how to do this devotion.

Work and pray. Work as if the survival of your family depends on you, and pray is if the survival of you and your family depends on God. Charity, logic, the Church and modern economics say to: Take care of yourself and the group, not yourself only, not the group only but both.

I will work and pray for myself, my family, by friends and my beloved Nation.

Rick Salbato

posted by Fred Martinez @ 8:31 PM