Saturday, October 18, 2008

AP Poll Finds Just 44-42% Obama Lead, Others Show McCain Not Far Behind

AP Poll Finds Just 44-42% Obama Lead, Others Show McCain Not Far Behind

A new poll conducted by the Associated Press and Yahoo finds pro-abortion candidate Barack Obama with just a 44-42 percent lead over John McCain, who opposes abortion. The poll includes an oversampling of Democratic voters, which some political observers say may not reflect November's turnout.

The poll found 4 percent of voters support another candidate while 9 percent say they are still undecided about the presidential race.

The AP survey found 86 percent of voters who named a candidate are certain about their vote while 14 percent say there is a chance they will change their mind.

Obama and McCain received identical 52 percent favorable ratings and unfavorable ratings of about 42 percent. About 48 percent of Americans view pro-life running mate Sarah Palin favorably while 48 percent view pro-abortion running mate Joe Biden favorably.

Recent media polls show the presidential contest outside the margin of error, but those polls, like the Associated Press survey, contain a significantly higher percentage of Democratic voters that skews the results.

On the other hand, non-media, non-partisan polling firms show a much closer race.

On Friday, the Rasmussen firm released the results of its most recent tracking poll showing Obama ahead by just four percent, 50-46.

The two candidates are even among male voters, which has been McCain's strength for months unless the recent economic downturn, while Obama leads among women by 8 points.

The survey shows McCain could easily close the gap with Obama if conservative voters would offer him more support. McCain leads 80-17 percent among conservatives while Obama leads by a higher 89 to 8 percent among liberal voters.

However, the poll only reflects about one-third of the voters in it following the Wednesday night debate, which pleased pro-life voters with McCain taking a strong position against abortion.

A Friday Zogby tracking poll shows Obama with a lead of just five, 49 to 45 percent, with some of the survey coming before the presidential debate.

"Only one-quarter of this sample is post-debate, so we'll have to wait a few more days to see" if there is any impact, pollster John Zogby said. "We'll have to look tomorrow to see if there was any McCain boost at all."

While instant polls after the debate showed either a tie or an Obama victory, conservatives generally believe McCain acquitted himself well and solidifying his base could improve McCain's standing while Obama already has strong support from his base.

- by Steven Ertelt ,, MT


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